seperis | economic death spiral 2008

Today was supposed to be amazing and I'm irritable, as I have three financial hobbies; shopping for computer equipment, buying stock, and entertaining myself on slow days reading financial blogs that predict doom, doom, and doom. I had live quotes on. I was very excited about this because honestly, Facebook causes me nothing but stress and I feel it owed me an exciting day of watching people go insane over a site where you can read about other people's toenail clippings and recent convenience store robberies.

However, dude, Facebook was supposed to be like, epic - it was supposed to IPO and then immediately leap to the highest possible price (estimates $54 to $68) and also distract us from that pesky issue with the Euro and the entire country of Greece. The financial sector carried on with near-orgasmic bliss at the the third-largest IPO in U.S. history (sometimes they bolded that as well!). It also was supposed to break the market or something (there are like, graphs and everything). Definitely it was supposed to do something, make millionaires, end civilization, something

Short version of events:

IPO: $38
Opening: $42.05 (twenty minutes late, btw, thanks NASDAQ for driving us all crazy hitting refresh until our fingers hurt)
High: $45
Current: $40.01 (1:54 PM CST: Google Finance)

It also caused Zynga (creators of Farmville) to spiral hard enough to call a halt to trading here, which is weird, you'd think, the company that went public and became valuable due to its relationship with Facebook having a death spiral that again, made them call a halt to trading.

And in case you're curious, the Down, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 are all in a downward skid as well.

I've been trading since the glorious economic death spiral of 2008 since I feel as if the economy is going to make me lose money anyway, I should have the fun of losing it myself. However, this is the first time I canceled a trade (within an hour of making it) and then called my mom to cancel hes because I couldn't remember her login.

Anyone know more specifically about the market that has any theories? I've done enough reading to kind of guess at a couple of the reasons this went wrong, but I'm still honestly shocked that Facebook, the freaking social media IPO grail, failed to garner mass amounts of idiotic market hysteria and become bloated and overpriced while short sellers made fortunes.

Yahoo headlines tracks the entire slow, boring journey. I feel betrayed.

The Egypitan government has pulled Al Jazeera's license in continuing attempts to return to the days of, IDK, carrier pigeon communication.

Yemen protesters marched outside the Egyptian embassy in Yemen, yes, that's an awkward sentence but there are five thousand articles to read and correcting myself takes time. They're also in in the middle of their own protests in demanding their president resign.

Jordan is also protesting at the Egyptian embassy in the midst of a new wave of demands that their president resign.

China blocks the word 'Egypt' from it's search engines. Yeah. That's...something.

Algeria and Lebannon are getting inspired to join in.

Syria isn't being protest-oriented quite yet, but After Egypt, Can Syria Fall Next?

And Tunisia continues to shake up dictators everywhere by by issuing an arrest warrant for their former president while continuing to be revolutionaries.

God. I will never be able to read everything.

( vaguely related note )

On manipulation:

Seperis: I'll give you ten shares of FTR stock.
Svmadelyn: and bribing with stock is beneath us both.
Svmadelyn: *stares*
Seperis: It is not.
Svmadelyn: Can't we pretend that something is beneath us?
Svmadelyn: Anything?
Seperis: I'm sure there's something.
Seperis: But I'm pretty sure bribing with stock is technically way above us.
Seperis: and we're being pretentious.
Svmadelyn: I hate it on those once every six week occasions where you have a mild point.

Unrelated,

svmadelyn and I are trying to negotiate competitive stock roulette for the coming year. Which only sounds insane if you are a sane and logical human being who doesn't use the stock market as a really risky form of entertainment but for logical things like, their retirement or a loft or a trip to Europe. We are not those people. We are people who are trying to negotiate a series of rules for the upcoming year, and I was thinking Dogs of the Dow as a starting point, though while yes not a great investing strategy in itself, it does work as a container list to pick from.

I just wrote out this and realize to myself that yes, I am a person playing stock market roulette with Madelyn for actualfax money. Christ, what have I become. I never did things like this when I was still in SGA. So Dogs of the Dow, two stocks, minimum monthly 50 to 100 invested, one year. Winner by percentage gain or least percentage lost.

Yeah. That's sane.

(I'll be honest, though. Doing this is probably the only way I keep a working savings account. I've never been able to keep one otherwise. The entertainment keeps me from spending. And also, the three day waiting period plus transfer time after liquidation. Works amazingly for avoiding overshopping. It's like the gun law for impulse buying.)

(Actually, this month is my two year anniversary. How weird. I've been doing this for two entire years. Oh Lehman Brothers, what chaos you created in your crashing and burning.)

Anyone else want to play?

Link from

tzikeh: Goldman Sachs Senate hearing: live blog by Richard Adams.

This may be the greatest liveblogging of anything ever.

"You knew it was a shitty deal and you didn't tell your clients," Levin tells Sparks. "Does that bother you at all?" Sparks goes down the Reagan route in his defence: "I don't recall," he says.

Oh wow, this is delicious. I wish I could keep up with Levin here, who is greatly enjoying repeating the phrase "shitty deal".

Daniel Sparks is currently wishing he'd done medicine like his parents wanted him to. But oh no, he had to be clever and go work on Wall Street.

Also:

Watching people in a room leafing through bits of paper not exactly the most riveting TV in history since Frost-Nixon interview or Nick Clegg's last debate.

"Were you approached by Graywolf?" asks McCaskill, sounding like she's reading lines from an upcoming X-Men movie staring Hugh Jackman's father.

Otherwise, this is getting repetitive. Who's next? Mark Pryor, Democratic senator from Arkansas, who pokes Sparks again over the bank's responsibility to inform its clients about the bank's trading activities. But compared with Levin's bite, this is like being savaged by a dead sheep. In this case, a not very bright dead sheep.

Kinda in love with Levin, for the record.

Why I probably should never consider a career in finance.

While reading House of Cards by William D. Cohan:

By page 83:

seperis: Oh, this is sad.
seperis: [paraphrasing from book] Paul Friedman was exhausted, emotionally and physically. He took the train to his house in Scarsdale, at the end of a cul-de-sac. He collapsed in bed with the help of an Ambien and hoped to get some sleep. It was seven thirty. "At 9:15, I'm asleep and I hear knocking. Susie come upstairs and says "Timmy Greene is on the phone for you". I say, "He's on the phone for me now? What day is it?""
seperis: He's a Bear Stearns exec and has been awake since Wednesday.
seperis: And this is Friday night.
seperis: He says "get the lawyers involved" in a deal with JP Morgan.

amireal: That sounds about right
seperis: And Timmy said that the lawyer had taken a sleeping pill beforehand.
seperis: And fell asleep during the conversation.[end paraphrasing from book]
seperis: Who had also been awake since Wednesday.
seperis: No the fuck wonder Bear fell.
seperis: THEY TRIED TO SLEEP DEPRIVE THEIR EXECS TO DEATH
seperis: Jesus.
seperis: I can't even conceive of these numbers. 400 billion in assets.
Just all non-liquid.
seperis: *blank*
amireal: This is partially why I freaked out with Disney buying Marvel.

By page 99:

seperis: Okay, if I'd been Bear Stearns?
seperis: I would have damn well bankrupted and collapsed the system.
seperis: But I like to blow things up.
seperis: *grins*
amireal: heh
seperis: Okay, definitely.
seperis: I would hold my finger over the nuclear option.
seperis: Possibly just to see who blinked first.
amireal: I think it would matter how much I wanted to hurt people
seperis: *Thoughtful* I would not be good at stock broking, but I would be awesome during Mexican standoffs.
amireal: Or if I was in a mood.
seperis: ...we're both in moods a lot.
seperis: Maybe we should join Wall Street.
amireal: Hmm
seperis: *mulls* We could collapse the finanical district during our next periods.
amireal: it's possible there would much damage
amireal: or we'd end up supreme overloards
seperis: Show them what's too big to fall. Let's test that shit.
amireal: Chase? WHO NEEDS CHASE? Come on fuckers, play ball.
seperis: Two dollars a share? Bring that shit, baby. Game on.
amireal: We could collect stock in companies relating to basic elements. Like Diamonds. Or silicone.

And this is why

amireal and I aren't allowed to work with money. Ever. Because we would collapse the financial world the next time Arthur pisses me off during Merlin. Wow, could you imagine what would have happened when SGA got canceled?

amireal: MAYBE CNBC CAN BECOME OUR SLAVES

But I'm tempted.

ETA:

Okay, wow.

p.136

This is from Moldaver, a Bear Stearns exec, to Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, during a meeting between the execs and Dimon. Live, if you will.

Quote:

"I've heard some people refer to this as a shotgun wedding," Moldaver said. "I wouldn't use that term. I'd cll this a shotgun wedding to a rapist. Yeah, yeah, the girl was lying there naked on the ground when you found her, that's true, but you did it anyway."

This was before the deal was altered to $10 a share. I am trying to figure out how you shout that kind of analogy and not, you know, herniate something.

A couple of days ago I was talking about how the market, as far as I can tell, is schizophrenic.

Example:

American International Group (AIG) is currently being raked fore and aft over that entire messy bonus issue. Late last week, it traded at less than fifty cents a share. I know this because I have a spreadsheet, and you know, I'm anal. You would think--you know, in a world where the market had something to do with what was going on in the actual business end of a company--this would be bad for the price of shares. Yeah, I would too. You know. Until this morning.

However, I cannot login to my account right now, as suddenly and inexplicably, there is too much trading right now. This was new, and I went to pull my spreadsheet and realized things looked wrong, as there was money there that really shouldn't be, since come on, it's not like I'm using logic here in my buying sprees.

This is because AIG tripled in price*.

Let me point this out again. AIG is being investigated for bonus stuff and is going to get ass-raped by the government with government subsidized lube which is also known as sandpaper and this morning the shares reached two dollars each. Bank of America is also still trading above seven (as of the last fifteen seconds), and see, this is why when people look grim over the state of the economy because the DOW looks unhappy, I kind of laugh. The DOW is not unhappy. A whole bunch of hedge fund managers and assorted brokers just bought new BMWs and are making a down payment. Check car sales in the area. Or you know, whose child was arrested recently. I mean, seriously.

*taps fingers on desk*

So far, two hours of high trading and counting. This is hysterical. And I cannot participate in this historical moment. Not that I would. But I do like to boggle at it in real-time.

Totally shocking news that you would never, ever have guessed:

Via CNN:

It's official: Recession since Dec. '07, straight from the Department of Obvious Cat Is Obvious and the Secretary of The Sky Is Blue.

There is also a possibility they will make a tentative report on the possibility humans breathe oxygen. Please stay tuned.

Bailout Failed (Again) - the thing is, I just stare at this and think, wow. Wow, wow, wow.

Okay. Officially. For you who might know this stuff. How screwed are we? On a scale from gen to lubeless multi-character hentai?

I'm getting more coffee.

Wachovia? Really? And now bailouts in Europe?

Go Citigroup. *Rah* Actually, this one makes me sad. My sister has her accounts there which I assume, only understanding about a tenth of what is going on, are FDIC'ed, but I noticed my 457 lost another percentage point which translates to no buying myself poolboys when I'm seventy. Life hard.

I've noticed it's a lot easier and funnier to stop looking at this as "the future of America" and instead look upon it as a morality play about socks. I haven no idea why socks, per se, but I know that if there's a lesson in greed in this, no one who needed the lesson learned a damn thing.

Somewhere, there's got to be a group of people running bets on who crashes next.

ETA: Fine! I feel betrayed by European banks! This is our crash and now they have to try and steal our economic death spiral attention! I resent it! *bitter* Just watch, Asia's next, because it's trendy for banks to fall. Dammit.

Because if we cannot laugh at an economic death spiral, we cannot laugh at anything. Spoilers for the economic crisis! In case you were waiting for the coming movie.

Government Seizes WaMu and Sells Some Assets

That'd be Washington Mutual, for those like me who said "Who the fuck is WaMu?" We have learned today that WaMu--okay, seriously, say that out loud, it rocks--WaMu is, and I quote, "the giant lender that came to symbolize the excesses of the mortgage boom".

Now, being most of us bloggers and writers, we all have to take a step back and admire the language.

seperis: I love how they use the word "seized".

svmadelyn: I know!
seperis: I SEE ARMIES OF ACCOUNTANTS SNATCHING LAPTOPS FROM CEOS!
svmadelyn: I have this mental image
svmadelyn: of them--YEAH
svmadelyn: boots tumbling down the stairs
seperis: AND THROWING PAPERS OUT OF FILE CABINETS
seperis: AND GRABBING RIFLING EXECUTIVE DESKS IN SLEEK BLACK FITTED JUMPSUITS

Carrying number two pencils, sharpened. As

musesfool once remarked to

celli, and this is a paraphrase, if you can't kill your enemies with a sharpened number two pencil, you don't deserve to be a CPA.

They are stabbing. And they like it.

The federal goverment has never been so hot. Seize more assets, baby. Bring it on.

In other news, JP Morgan is marrying any trollop it can get its hands on (seriously, does anyone else notice the language being used? Failing companies == ruined women in need of rescue; it's hysterical. The dowries are terrible; we must be doing this old school) while the Papa Feds apparently hold a shotgun to their back during the wedding.

Oh come on, like we all aren't wondering when economics, like physics, became a weird and kind of disorienting bdsm scene. I, for one, stare blankly and try not to rewrite this entire thing into an epic h/c fic, because I think it would make more sense that way. Or at least give me great personal amusement, the way my 457 account totally is not in a variety of ways.

For anyone who wants the short and simplified version in day by day format: The crisis: A timeline.

I love the fact that I can examine this from a narrative perspective far more easily than from a personal one. Financial death spiral. That's just beautiful.

ETA: Government Bailout in Disarray! - in the movie, I want Paulson played by Al Pacino. For the irony factor.

*lies down* Fuck retiring like, ever. The sheer entertainment value almost makes it worth it.

It's currently 69.3 F outside. This is very, very, very disturbing.

*looks out window suspiciously*

Do you think even the weather is mourning poor Merrill Lynch and Wall Street?

Yes, more likely Ike, but the only way I can look at my retirement account without hysterics right now is mocking Wall Street.

Seriously. I have my sweater on non-ironically. Okay, it's also always chilly in this building, but outside? Chilly!

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Page Summary

okay, so the facebook thing was weird, right?
i took politics in college, but now i wonder if it should have been economics
this isn't even sad, so much as a sign of things bargain-rate apocalyptic
shitty sheep, roman tyrants, and goldman sachs is totes not spartacus here
so why not liveblog my reading? i never promised to be interesting, you know
random drive by AIG moment
just brace yourself, because it is just that shocking
so yes. this is going well
the deluge junior size, if you will
government intervention made sexy
the second coming of an ice age

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silverkyst: I need to not be taking molecular genetics.
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Adding for Mastodon.
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Base style: Open Spaces by seperis
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Page generated Apr. 23rd, 2025 08:33 am

okay, so the facebook thing was weird, right?

i took politics in college, but now i wonder if it should have been economics

this isn't even sad, so much as a sign of things bargain-rate apocalyptic

shitty sheep, roman tyrants, and goldman sachs is totes not spartacus here

so why not liveblog my reading? i never promised to be interesting, you know

random drive by AIG moment

just brace yourself, because it is just that shocking

so yes. this is going well

the deluge junior size, if you will

government intervention made sexy

the second coming of an ice age